AGCO Corporation is a global producer and supplier of farm machinery and aftermarket parts. Based in Duluth, Georgia, the company serves agricultural markets across multiple regions.
1Y: 110.91 (+8.6%) · range 98.45–139.71
entry readiness 67 · GOOD SETUP · exit proximity 0
Value area 105.61–124.09 · 73% of 120d volume overhead · heavy supply
AGCO is a genuinely conflicted dossier: a strong earnings beat and constructive near-term tape sit on top of a weak fundamental/absolute picture and a peer complex that actively contradicts the setup. The daily lane itself only reaches WATCH — an entry zone with a good-but-unconfirmed setup — so Orca is not committing either, and the one prior flag on record delivered badly negative realised returns. The read turns on whether the +20.7% earnings surprise can overpower a SHORT-CANDIDATE absolute score and a lagging cluster, and so far the ground truth says no.
- Earnings Surprise source fired hot at 0.967, consensus +20.7% on 2026-10-29
- EMA/technical leg 67 and daily readiness 67 ('GOOD SETUP'), with a double_bottom:forming pattern (score 54)
- Conviction blend 51/100 keeps it on the watchlist rather than dismissing it
- Absolute score composite 28/100 = SHORT CANDIDATE, with fundamental leg only 27
- Peer cluster verdict CONTRADICT with lag_z -2.5 — the complex is working against this name
- Prior flag's realised forward returns are strongly negative: 20d -11.3%, 40d -13.0%, with MFE only +1.5% — the move never worked
- Daily lane is WATCH (setup not confirmed), Markov trend FLAT with P(stay) only 36%, and no Monte Carlo on record to quantify edge
Invalidated if: The daily lane confirming the entry trigger (WATCH→OPEN) alongside the peer cluster flipping off CONTRADICT would invalidate the neutral read toward bullish; a loss of the double-bottom base / readiness rolling below setup threshold would tip it bearish.
| Source | Score | Last seen |
|---|---|---|
| earnings-surprise | 0.967 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| financial-news | 0.120 | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Horizon | Return | MFE | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20d | -11.32% | +1.53% | mature |
| 40d | -12.98% | +1.53% | 31/40d |