Research
The studies behind the books, published in full. That includes the ideas that failed: most of what we test does not survive, and the reasons are as useful as the results.
Oct 30, 2026
We tested the turn-of-month effect on 13 years of QQQ and SPY. It doesn't survive.
The last trading day of a month plus the first three of the next are supposed to carry outsized returns. Since 2014 they have earned about what any other days earned, and they rank below average among every other four-day window in the month.
Oct 29, 2026
Our momentum-crash monitor catches factor rotations, not de-grossing. October 2026 shows the difference.
A price-only detector flags the days when crowded winners and losers swap places. It caught DeepSeek, the tariff pause and three 2026 AI unwinds. It missed the October de-gross, and three earlier deleveraging events, for the same reason.