Applied Digital Corporation designs and operates computing infrastructure facilities serving the high-performance computing and artificial intelligence sectors across North America. The company operates through two main segments: data center hosting and HPC hosting services. Its offerings include powered infrastructure for cryptocurrency mining operations and cloud computing services for AI and machine learning companies, as well as the development and management of data centers that deliver processing capacity for computationally intensive applications. The Dallas-based company changed its name from Applied Blockchain, Inc. in November 2022.
1Y: 24.39 (+22.5%) · range 19.91–49.65
entry readiness 78 · GOOD SETUP · exit proximity 0
Value area 23.69–40.28 · 95% of 120d volume overhead · heavy supply
APLD sits in an unresolved entry zone: the daily lane flags a GOOD SETUP (readiness 78) and the blend's EMA/technical leg is strong at 78, but that optimism is contradicted by a Markov DOWN state with 88% persistence, a NEUTRAL still-forming double bottom, and an absolute score of only 36 (HOLD/NEUTRAL). The read turns on the fact that no lane has actually confirmed — daily is WATCH with 0.0% size — so there is a setup but no trigger, and the corroborating source stack is thin and narrative-grade.
- Daily lane is WATCH, not OPEN — 'ENTRY ZONE but setup not confirmed', readiness 78, sizing 0.0%
- Absolute composite only 36/100 with HOLD/NEUTRAL label and a technical leg of just 5 in a MeanRev regime
- Markov trend DOWN with P(stay) 88% argues against an imminent directional break
- Contributing sources are weak and non-orthogonal — Trader Sentiment 0.586, Short Interest 0.252, Retail Forum Chatter 0.081 (all sentiment/narrative, no insider/13F/catalyst corroboration)
- Earnings surprise of -116.7% (2026-07-27) is a real fundamental drag
- Blend EMA/technical leg 78 and daily readiness 78 flag a genuine GOOD SETUP in the entry zone
- Peer cluster verdict CONFIRM with lag_z ~-0.0 (no laggard drag)
- Double bottom is forming (score 18) — a constructive base could resolve upward
- Prior flag's realised forward returns were mildly positive (+2.5% at both 20d and 40d) with no drawdown recorded
- No Monte Carlo on record, so simulated risk/reward is untested (ungraded)
Invalidated if: A confirmed daily entry trigger (WATCH→OPEN) plus a Markov flip out of DOWN would turn this bullish; a close below the forming double-bottom base would turn it bearish.
| Source | Score | Last seen |
|---|---|---|
| trader-sentiment | 0.586 | Sep 17, 2026 |
| short-interest | 0.252 | Sep 14, 2026 |
| forum-chatter | 0.081 | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Horizon | Return | MFE | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20d | +2.48% | +2.48% | 1/20d |
| 40d | +2.48% | +2.48% | 1/40d |