Coinbase Global, Inc. is a digital asset exchange that serves customers across the U.S. and abroad. The company offers retail investment services in cryptocurrencies, institutional trading solutions with market depth, and developer tools for blockchain applications. Founded in 2012, it is headquartered in New York.
1Y: 143.54 (-58.3%) · range 141.09–343.78
entry readiness 87 · STRONG SETUP · exit proximity 0
Value area 155.76–194.05 · 74% of 120d volume overhead · heavy supply
COIN is a split dossier: a strong daily readiness (86) and a lopsided earnings beat pull one way, while the fixed-threshold score, trend state, and peer check all pull the other. Orca's own lanes resolve the conflict by standing aside — daily is WATCH (not OPEN), and both turtle and mean-reversion PASS — so the honest read is a watch-list name in an entry zone that has not confirmed, inside a down-trend regime. The read turns on whether the ENTRY-ZONE readiness can override a 90% Markov DOWN persistence and a CONTRADICT peer verdict; right now it hasn't.
- Earnings Surprise source fired hottest at 0.967, with a reported +275.0% surprise on 2026-10-29
- EMA/technical leg of the conviction blend is 86, and daily readiness is 86 [STRONG SETUP] in an ENTRY ZONE
- crypto_equities cluster is IMPROVING with RS-mom +102.5 — capital rotating toward the complex
- Trader Sentiment contributing at 0.593 adds a second (if correlated) positive family
- Daily lane is WATCH with 0.0% size and turtle + mean-reversion both PASS — Orca itself is not engaging
- Markov trend is DOWN with 90% P(stay), and the absolute technical leg is just 23 vs the blend's EMA 86 — internal contradiction
- peer cluster verdict is CONTRADICT (lag_z +0.9) and chart pattern is NEUTRAL (score 0) — no overlay confirmation
- prior flag's realised forward return is -2.7% at both 20d and 40d (MFE -2.7%), and no Monte Carlo is on record; congress net -1
Invalidated if: A daily transition from WATCH to OPEN/ENTER with Markov flipping to UP would confirm the bull case; conversely a close below the turtle stop ~$122.53 ends it decisively.
| Source | Score | Last seen |
|---|---|---|
| earnings-surprise | 0.967 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| trader-sentiment | 0.593 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| forum-chatter | 0.321 | Oct 26, 2026 |
| breakdown-signal | 0.143 | Oct 30, 2026 |
IMPROVING · rank 22 · none
| Horizon | Return | MFE | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20d | -2.74% | -2.74% | 1/20d |
| 40d | -2.74% | -2.74% | 1/40d |