Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. operates a social media platform called Truth Social and a streaming service called Truth+ that features live television and on-demand programming. The company also manages Truth.Fi, a financial services division offering investment products, and maintains digital assets including bitcoin holdings. Founded in 2021 and based in Sarasota, Florida, the company operates primarily in the United States across social media, streaming, and financial services segments.
1Y: 8.68 (-48.7%) · range 7.06–17.62
entry readiness 66 · GOOD SETUP · exit proximity 0
Value area 8.04–9.69 · 67% of 120d volume overhead · heavy supply
DJT is a genuinely split dossier: the daily lane sees an ENTRY ZONE with GOOD SETUP readiness and a forming ascending triangle, but the promoted risk math and trend state lean the other way. Monte Carlo shows negative expectancy and a Markov DOWN state with 91% persistence, while the only contributing sources are soft narrative families (video/retail chatter) with no orthogonal hard confirmation. Net read is a WATCH-grade coin-flip with a modest bearish tilt — nothing here justifies conviction in either direction until the setup triggers or breaks.
- Pre-trade Monte Carlo is negative: expectancy -0.25R, P(profit) 42% vs P(stop) 56%, median -5.3% over 40d
- Markov trend is DOWN with 91% probability of staying — a strong persistence signal against a bounce
- Absolute score composite 46/100 → HOLD/NEUTRAL with a weak technical leg (29) in a MeanRev regime
- Contributing sources are all soft narrative (Video Trends 0.446, Retail Forum Chatter 0.434) with a Breakdown Signal 0.202 firing — no insider/13F/earnings confirmation
- Daily lane flags ENTRY ZONE with readiness 66 [GOOD SETUP] and an ascending_triangle:forming — a legitimate constructive setup if it triggers
- Conviction blend 49 with EMA/technical leg at 66 is not outright bearish
- Prior flag's realised forward returns are only marginally negative (-1.4% at both 20d/40d), not a decisive breakdown
Invalidated if: A confirmed close above the ascending-triangle resistance that flips the daily WATCH to OPEN and breaks the Markov DOWN state would invalidate the neutral-bearish tilt; conversely a breakdown below the triangle base confirms it.
| Source | Score | Last seen |
|---|---|---|
| video-trends | 0.446 | Sep 14, 2026 |
| forum-chatter | 0.434 | Sep 17, 2026 |
| trader-sentiment | 0.208 | Sep 15, 2026 |
| breakdown-signal | 0.202 | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Horizon | Return | MFE | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20d | -1.37% | -1.37% | 1/20d |
| 40d | -1.37% | -1.37% | 1/40d |