EMCOR Group, Inc. is a construction and facilities services company operating in the United States and United Kingdom. The company provides installation, maintenance, and operational support across electrical systems, HVAC, plumbing, fire protection, and industrial infrastructure, serving sectors including commercial buildings, refineries, and military installations. Its service portfolio encompasses design and engineering, on-site maintenance, facility management, and specialized trades such as welding and fabrication.
1Y: 679.55 (+0.8%) · range 580.33–942.76
entry readiness 79 · GOOD SETUP · exit proximity 0
Value area 723.89–840.66 · 94% of 120d volume overhead · heavy supply
EME is a textbook divergence case: a strong earnings beat (+15.2%, source score 0.967) and a healthy blend technical leg (EMA 79, readiness 79 GOOD SETUP) pull one way, while the fixed-threshold technical (18), Markov DOWN (86% persistence), a CONTRADICT peer cluster (lag_z +1.4) and negative realised forward returns pull the other. Orca itself refuses to commit — daily lane is WATCH (entry zone but setup not confirmed, 0.0% size) and the absolute score is a flat HOLD/NEUTRAL (46). Until a confirmation trigger fires, the trend regime and realised history dominate the single bullish catalyst.
- Earnings Surprise fired strongest at 0.967 with a +15.2% beat on 2026-10-29
- EMA/technical leg of the blend is 79 and readiness is 79 (GOOD SETUP) in an ENTRY ZONE
- Blend conviction 56/100 sits above the absolute composite, driven by that technical setup
- Absolute technical only 18 and Markov trend DOWN with 86% P(stay) — the tape is not confirming
- Peer cluster CONTRADICT (lag_z +1.4) and chart pattern NEUTRAL (score 0) offer no corroboration
- Realised forward returns from a prior flag are negative: -10.1% at 20d, -6.8% at 40d (both mature)
- Insider/congress support is negligible — $2,300 from 1 insider, congress net -1 seller; no Monte Carlo on record
Invalidated if: A confirmed daily entry trigger with the Markov trend flipping from DOWN to UP would validate the bull case; failure to trigger while price stays in the DOWN regime confirms the neutral-to-weak read.
| Source | Score | Last seen |
|---|---|---|
| earnings-surprise | 0.967 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| financial-news | 0.120 | Oct 29, 2026 |
| insider-activity | 0.001 | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Horizon | Return | MFE | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20d | -10.14% | +5.52% | mature |
| 40d | -6.78% | +5.52% | mature |