Business cycle

Where the US economy sits, and which way it is moving — read from manufacturing surveys, national activity, a leading indicator and company profits, each as it was known at the time.

Expansion11 months · as of Nov 3, 2026

The composite is above its long-run norm and improving: +0.61 against a long-run norm of 0, +0.06 over three months.

Manufacturing surveys: +0.80; Philadelphia, New York and Dallas Fed
Activity: +0.09; Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 3-mo avg
Leading indicator: +1.11; OECD composite leading indicator, US
Profits: +0.46; S&P 500 median operating-income growth

Component values are z-scores: how many standard deviations each sits above or below its own trailing ten years.

The composite over time

Expansion
Slowdown
Contraction
Recovery
Long-run norm (0)

Showing the last 24 month-ends. Pro shows the full history back to 2000.

Expansion — composite above its long-run norm and improving.
Slowdown — composite above its long-run norm but losing momentum.
Contraction — composite below its long-run norm and still weakening.
Recovery — composite below its long-run norm but improving.

Company profits

Median growth is the typical company's year-on-year change; the sum is dominated by a handful of very large companies' one-off items, so it is shown last. A quarter still reporting is drawn hollow and labelled in season.

S&P 500 — median operating-income growth

Nasdaq-100 — median operating-income growth

S&P 500

Quarter	Reported	Op. income (median)	Net income (median)	Revenue	Breadth	Beat rate	Net income (sum)
2026Q3in season	315/503	+12.4%	+14.8%	+13.6%	69%	76%	+27.8%
2026Q2	495/503	+13.7%	+15.4%	+15.5%	72%	85%	+59.5%
2026Q1	491/503	+13.2%	+16.7%	+11.5%	74%	86%	+42.1%
2025Q4	490/503	+10.1%	+6.2%	+9.0%	58%	75%	+10.8%

2026Q3

in season · 315/503

Op. income: +12.4%
Net income: +14.8%
Revenue: +13.6%
Breadth: 69%
Beat rate: 76%
Sum NI: +27.8%

2026Q2

495/503

Op. income: +13.7%
Net income: +15.4%
Revenue: +15.5%
Breadth: 72%
Beat rate: 85%
Sum NI: +59.5%

2026Q1

491/503

Op. income: +13.2%
Net income: +16.7%
Revenue: +11.5%
Breadth: 74%
Beat rate: 86%
Sum NI: +42.1%

2025Q4

490/503

Op. income: +10.1%
Net income: +6.2%
Revenue: +9.0%
Breadth: 58%
Beat rate: 75%
Sum NI: +10.8%

Nasdaq-100

Quarter	Reported	Op. income (median)	Net income (median)	Revenue	Breadth	Beat rate	Net income (sum)
2026Q3in season	60/101	+20.2%	+26.9%	+19.1%	77%	68%	+46.7%
2026Q2	97/101	+28.0%	+30.5%	+23.4%	74%	84%	+80.2%
2026Q1	96/101	+19.8%	+25.3%	+19.0%	80%	86%	+70.4%
2025Q4	96/101	+15.8%	+10.3%	+13.5%	57%	71%	+17.9%

2026Q3

in season · 60/101

Op. income: +20.2%
Net income: +26.9%
Revenue: +19.1%
Breadth: 77%
Beat rate: 68%
Sum NI: +46.7%

2026Q2

97/101

Op. income: +28.0%
Net income: +30.5%
Revenue: +23.4%
Breadth: 74%
Beat rate: 84%
Sum NI: +80.2%

2026Q1

96/101

Op. income: +19.8%
Net income: +25.3%
Revenue: +19.0%
Breadth: 80%
Beat rate: 86%
Sum NI: +70.4%

2025Q4

96/101

Op. income: +15.8%
Net income: +10.3%
Revenue: +13.5%
Breadth: 57%
Beat rate: 71%
Sum NI: +17.9%

The indicators

Series	Latest	Period	Source
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing: Current General Activity	20.90	2026-10-01	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia via FRED
Empire State Manufacturing: Current General Business Conditions	25.50	2026-10-01	Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED
Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing: Current General Business Activity	13.40	2026-10-01	Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas via FRED
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 3-month average	0.03	2026-09-01	Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
OECD Composite Leading Indicator, amplitude adjusted, US	101.00	2026-09-01	Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED
Initial jobless claims (SA)	194,000	2026-10-24	U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Sahm rule recession indicator (real-time)	0.00	2026-09-01	Claudia Sahm via FRED
10-year minus 3-month Treasury	0.74 pts	2026-11-03	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED
10-year minus 2-year Treasury	0.34 pts	2026-11-03	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED
Corporate profits after tax (NIPA, $bn SAAR)	$4,280bn	2026-04-01	U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED

Method and sources

Composite = mean of available component z-scores, each against its own trailing 10 years: regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Philadelphia, New York, Dallas), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (3-month average), OECD composite leading indicator, and S&P 500 median operating-income growth. Phase = composite sign x 3-month change (expansion, slowdown, contraction, recovery), moving after two consecutive month-ends in a new quadrant. Inputs as known on each date. Describes the cycle; it does not forecast recessions.

Point-in-time index members; quarters counted once reported. Growth sums first: total of the quarter over the same quarter a year earlier, for members that reported both, in USD. Median = typical member's growth; the sums are dominated by a few large companies' one-off items. Breadth = share of those members whose net income rose. History = each quarter as known 120 days after it ended.

Data sources (retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis):

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing: Current General Activity [GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Empire State Manufacturing: Current General Business Conditions [GACDISA066MSFRBNY], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GACDISA066MSFRBNY
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing: Current General Business Activity [BACTSAMFRBDAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BACTSAMFRBDAL
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 3-month average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD Composite Leading Indicator, amplitude adjusted, US [USALOLITOAASTSAM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USALOLITOAASTSAM
U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial jobless claims (SA) [ICSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
Claudia Sahm, Sahm rule recession indicator (real-time) [SAHMREALTIME], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-year minus 3-month Treasury [T10Y3M], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-year minus 2-year Treasury [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Corporate profits after tax (NIPA, $bn SAAR) [CP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP

Impersonal research, not personalized investment advice. This page describes the economy; it is not a forecast or a signal to buy, sell, or hold any security.